Showing posts with label coffee prices. Show all posts
Showing posts with label coffee prices. Show all posts

Tuesday, October 28, 2025

Vietnam’s Coffee Export Value Hits Record High; Prices Expected to Stay Elevated in the New Season

 As global demand for coffee continues to surge, Vietnam — the world’s largest Robusta producer — is experiencing a historic boom. The country’s coffee export revenue has reached new heights, fueled by strong international prices and robust yields across its fertile Central Highlands. Farmers are optimistic, traders are holding back stocks for better deals, and experts predict that Vietnam’s coffee prices will stay high well into the new season. Here’s a closer look at what’s driving this record-breaking growth and what it means for the global coffee market.



According to data from the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (VICOFA), Vietnam exported over 1.5 million tons of coffee during the 2024/25 season — a 6% increase compared to the previous year. Export revenue surged to an unprecedented $8.4 billion, up 60% year over year, driven by both higher coffee prices and increased production.

Starting in October, Vietnam entered the 2025/26 crop year, with domestic coffee prices holding steady around 115,000 VND per kilogram (approximately $4.37), about 5,000 VND higher than the same time last year.

On the international market, Robusta coffee futures have stabilized between $4,500 and $4,600 per ton, while Arabica futures have soared to nearly $9,000 per ton, giving Vietnamese Robusta coffee a strong competitive edge.

In the Central Highlands, Vietnam’s largest coffee-growing region, local farmers remain optimistic that prices will stay high for the third consecutive year. Local cooperatives report that even with stable prices, farmers’ income and profits are expected to rise significantly this season.

A local trader also noted that many farmers are holding back their stock, waiting for better prices. In recent years, strong returns from coffee, durian, and pepper have brought greater financial stability, allowing farmers to adopt more strategic selling practices.

Looking ahead, VICOFA forecasts that Vietnam’s coffee output could increase by about 10% in the 2025/26 season, supported by favorable weather conditions and persistently high prices. Additionally, rising Arabica coffee prices from Brazil and Colombia are expected to further boost global demand and pricing for Vietnamese Robusta.

Vietnam’s record-breaking coffee performance underscores its growing influence in the global market. With farmers gaining more control over when and how they sell, and with international buyers increasingly recognizing the quality and reliability of Vietnamese Robusta, the country is well-positioned to strengthen its role as a key player in the global supply chain. If favorable weather and strong prices continue into 2026, Vietnam’s coffee industry could set the tone for the next phase of sustainable growth and economic resilience in the world of coffee.


Saturday, October 25, 2025

Coffee Prices Retreat as Weather Risks Ease in Brazil and Vietnam

 


Coffee prices experienced a rollercoaster session on Thursday evening (Beijing time), rising sharply before pulling back. Arabica coffee futures fell after hitting a new record high, while Robusta futures dropped from a five-week peak. Analysts attribute the decline mainly to easing weather risks in major coffee-producing countries.

The recent rally in coffee prices had been fueled by fears that overly dry conditions in Brazil during the critical flowering stage of coffee trees could threaten the 2026/27 crop. According to Bloomberg’s weather analysis, Brazil’s key coffee-growing regions have faced severe drought, with rainfall in Minas Gerais reaching only about 70% of the historical average over the past month.

However, Brazil’s meteorological agency forecast on Thursday that rain is expected in major coffee regions this weekend. Meanwhile, Vietnam’s weather bureau lowered the likelihood of heavy rainfall in the country’s central coffee belt.

It’s worth noting that low inventories and the ongoing La Niña weather pattern remain major factors supporting coffee prices.

On Wednesday, ICE-monitored Arabica coffee inventories fell to a 19-month low of 465,910 bags, while Robusta stocks dropped to a three-month low of 6,141 lots.

The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) on September 16 raised the probability of a La Niña event forming in the Southern Hemisphere between October and December to 71%. Such conditions could bring excessive dryness to Brazil, potentially damaging the 2026/27 coffee crop — a scenario that continues to underpin coffee prices.