Coffee Prices Retreat as Weather Risks Ease in Brazil and Vietnam

 


Coffee prices experienced a rollercoaster session on Thursday evening (Beijing time), rising sharply before pulling back. Arabica coffee futures fell after hitting a new record high, while Robusta futures dropped from a five-week peak. Analysts attribute the decline mainly to easing weather risks in major coffee-producing countries.

The recent rally in coffee prices had been fueled by fears that overly dry conditions in Brazil during the critical flowering stage of coffee trees could threaten the 2026/27 crop. According to Bloomberg’s weather analysis, Brazil’s key coffee-growing regions have faced severe drought, with rainfall in Minas Gerais reaching only about 70% of the historical average over the past month.

However, Brazil’s meteorological agency forecast on Thursday that rain is expected in major coffee regions this weekend. Meanwhile, Vietnam’s weather bureau lowered the likelihood of heavy rainfall in the country’s central coffee belt.

It’s worth noting that low inventories and the ongoing La Niña weather pattern remain major factors supporting coffee prices.

On Wednesday, ICE-monitored Arabica coffee inventories fell to a 19-month low of 465,910 bags, while Robusta stocks dropped to a three-month low of 6,141 lots.

The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) on September 16 raised the probability of a La Niña event forming in the Southern Hemisphere between October and December to 71%. Such conditions could bring excessive dryness to Brazil, potentially damaging the 2026/27 coffee crop — a scenario that continues to underpin coffee prices.

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