According to Bloomberg, after experiencing a favorable rainy season, Vietnam’s coffee output for the 2025/26 crop year is expected to reach its highest level in nearly four years. This could help ease supply tightness and put downward pressure on global prices.
Based on median estimates from seven coffee traders, producers, exporters, and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, Vietnam’s coffee production in 2025/26 is projected to rise to 1.76 million tons. An increased supply of coffee entering the market could help fill the global shortfall caused by lower-than-expected output over the past two seasons and help stabilize prices.
Meanwhile, a report from investment firm Pine Agronegócios highlighted that as the global coffee market enters the fourth quarter of 2025, it is under pressure from two factors that rarely align but are now converging to reshape price, trade, and production expectations: the redesign of the commercial environment with the U.S. and the normalization of rainfall in Brazil’s main producing regions.
A report from Itaú BBA also noted that the coffee market is facing decisive weeks amid tight global balance sheets and ongoing volatility. The coming weeks will determine whether the new crop’s flowering goes well. Climate models indicate that monthly rainfall will remain favorable through December. If the weather continues to cooperate, next year’s output—especially Arabica coffee—could see significant improvement.
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