As one of the world’s most important coffee-producing regions, Indonesia plays a pivotal role in shaping the global coffee supply chain. From 2024/25 to 2025/26, the country’s coffee sector is characterized by steady production growth, evolving trade patterns, and increasingly segmented domestic consumption—together positioning Indonesia as an even more influential player in the international coffee landscape.
01. Production: Stable Acreage, Rising Output
For the 2025/26 crop year, Indonesia’s total coffee plantation area is projected to remain around 1.2 million hectares. In recent years, the government has neither launched large-scale replanting programs nor expanded cultivation, leading to stable acreage overall. In high-altitude regions suitable for Arabica coffee, limited labor availability continues to constrain smallholder farmers from scaling up production.
Smallholders dominate Indonesia’s coffee sector—accounting for about 98% of the total planted area, with most farms ranging between 1 and 2 hectares. A few large private estates operate mainly in Sulawesi and Sumatra, while East Java hosts a major state-run Robusta plantation.
Sumatra Island remains the heart of Indonesian coffee production, contributing 70–75% of national output. Robusta accounts for 80–90% of Indonesia’s total coffee production, concentrated in southern Sumatra, while North Sumatra serves as the country’s key Arabica-growing region.
Robusta yields typically average below one ton per hectare, lower than those of Arabica. Balanced sunlight and rainfall during the flowering stage are crucial, while heavy rain and strong winds during cherry development can reduce yields. Thanks to favorable weather during the October–November 2024 flowering season, Robusta production in lowland areas is expected to rise. As a result, Indonesia’s total coffee output for 2025/26 is forecast to reach 11.3 million bags, a 5% increase from the previous year.
02. Trade: Export Realignment and Shrinking Import Demand
On the export side, Indonesia’s coffee bean exports for 2025/26 are expected to grow 7% to 6.5 million bags, driven mainly by higher domestic production. However, shipments to the United States may decline due to the recently imposed 10% import tariff—even though a 90-day grace period has been granted. Traditional markets in ASEAN countries, Japan, and the Middle East are likely to absorb most of the redirected supply.
During the 2024/25 season, Indonesia’s top export destinations included the European Union, the U.S., Egypt, Malaysia, India, and Japan. From March 2024 to February 2025, exports to the U.S. reached 726,000 bags, up 23% year-on-year, while exports to the EU doubled to 1.4 million bags. Notably, the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR)—set to take effect by late 2025—is expected to directly impact exports in 2025/26. Indonesian exporters are already preparing for compliance and traceability requirements.
On the import side, Indonesia’s coffee imports are concentrated: Robusta beans mainly come from Vietnam, while Arabica beans are sourced from Brazil. From March 2024 to February 2025, imports from Vietnam dropped to 490,000 bags as local roasters increasingly favored domestic beans; imports from Brazil fell slightly to 180,000 bags. As Indonesia’s domestic supply capacity improves in 2025/26, green coffee imports are expected to decline further to 400,000 bags.
03. Consumption: Structural Shifts and Market Segmentation
Indonesia’s coffee consumption is projected to reach 4.81 million bags in 2025/26, a slight increase of 10,000 bags from the previous year, supported mainly by ongoing demand from roasters and processors.
Looking back at 2024/25, rising bean prices and weaker middle-class spending power compressed profit margins for local roasters. From the second half of 2025, as consumers increasingly favor lower-cost options, demand for mid- to low-grade coffee is expected to rise modestly.
Urban coffee consumption continues to polarize. Affordable coffee sold by street vendors and mobile carts remains the go-to choice for workers and lower-income groups, while coffee shops in public spaces cater to premium consumers and the Gen Z demographic. Ready-to-drink (RTD) coffee sales are forecast to maintain growth in 2025/26, but the 3% growth rate will mark the slowest since the pandemic.
04. Industry Policy: Driving Sustainability and High-Quality Growth
The Indonesian government is advancing its “Coffee 2030 Plan”, aiming to enhance national coffee processing capacity to 500,000 tons per year, reduce dependence on green bean exports, promote geographical indication certifications for volcanic coffee regions, and establish a comprehensive quality grading system.
To promote trade, the government is expanding international market access by supporting exporters’ participation in global trade fairs, fostering bilateral cooperation, and streamlining export procedures. It is also helping exporters adapt to international trade rules, such as the EU’s deforestation-free regulation, by developing due diligence and traceability systems.
On the production side, government initiatives focus on technology-driven empowerment—providing customized cultivation training, distributing high-quality seedlings and fertilizers, and promoting advanced agronomic practices across key growing regions.
In sustainability efforts, Indonesia encourages organic farming, eco-friendly cultivation, and “zero waste” circular models, converting coffee pulp into organic fertilizer or renewable energy.
Outlook
From 2024/25 to 2025/26, Indonesia’s coffee industry will continue to be defined by steady production growth, trade realignment, and diversified consumption. Its long-term success will depend on the effective implementation of the Coffee 2030 Plan, the adoption of high-quality seedlings and sustainable farming practices, and compliance with global standards like the EU Deforestation Regulation.
If Indonesia can balance productivity, trade risks, and market demand, it is poised to strengthen its position as a key global coffee producer—transitioning from a model of “volume-driven exports” to one centered on quality, value, and sustainable growth.