Coffee Futures Hit Record High, Yet China Keeps Buying: African Beans Become the “Hard Currency” of the Market

 Recently, Arabica coffee futures on the New York market hit a historic record of $4.36 per pound, with a single-day surge of nearly 4%. While the global coffee market fell into cautious observation amid skyrocketing prices, China’s market showed a striking contrast—coffee traders in Beijing, Shanghai, and Jiangsu kept purchasing large volumes of Ethiopian beans, with some popular varieties even facing shortages. This phenomenon of “buying more as prices rise” isn’t simply fueled by enthusiasm—it’s a result of intertwined factors: supply-demand dynamics, cost management, and consumer traffic.

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01

Buying More Despite the Price Hike: Four Core Drivers

The global price surge has done little to dampen China’s purchasing appetite, which is supported by four key forces.
As of August 2025, China had 288,000 café and beverage outlets, with freshly brewed coffee shops accounting for over 60%. In emerging first-tier cities, store counts grew 18% year-over-year, and coffee now contributes over 40% of the freshly made beverage market. The expanding store network and rising consumer demand pushed up the nation’s annual green coffee bean consumption by 12% year-over-year, creating strong, inelastic demand that drives proactive restocking.

According to the 2024/25 Brazil Coffee Production Report, drought has caused Arabica output in Brazil to drop to 2.22 million tons, a 6.6% decline from the previous season. Domestically, Yunnan Province—with its unique geography and innovative supply chain—has become China’s key coffee-growing region, producing 98% of the country’s beans and posting 32% export growth year-over-year. However, one single production area can’t satisfy China’s increasingly diverse consumption scenarios, making African origins—known for their distinctive flavors and reliable supply—an essential supplement.

The China Foreign Exchange Trade System reported that from January to September 2025, the RMB/USD exchange rate remained relatively stable, lowering currency hedging costs and encouraging importers to lock in long-term contracts and secure shipping schedules early in the price cycle.
During the 2025 “618” shopping festival, brands such as AOKKA and Luckin Coffee sold over 50,000 units of their Ethiopian “Yirgacheffe” single-origin coffees, with livestreams contributing over 60% of sales. In the Double 11 pre-sale, some brands sold out their monthly Yirgacheffe quotas within three hours, further fueling upstream demand for advance inventory.

02

African Coffee Imports: Concentration Meets Diversification

Between January and September 2025, China’s imports of African coffee displayed a pattern of “dominant producers leading, niche origins supplementing.” Data from January to August 2025 highlight clear stratification by origin and price:

• Ethiopia accounted for 84.1% of total import value from Africa, showing a sharp year-over-year increase.

• Uganda ranked second with significant growth, while Kenya, Tanzania, and Rwanda provided diversified complements.

• Burundi made its first-ever coffee export to China in July 2025—38.4 tons of Arabica beans, according to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ announcement on October 20, 2025. Subsequent agreements secured over 900 tons in additional trade, marking the formal start of China–Burundi coffee relations.

Customs data show that unroasted green beans make up 99.2% of China’s coffee imports from Africa—by far the mainstay. Ethiopian beans command higher average prices than Uganda’s and slightly lower than Kenya’s, reflecting their mid-to-high-end positioning in the global market.

Import distribution by province reveals concentration among coastal economic hubs. From January to August 2025, Beijing, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Tianjin, and Fujian together accounted for over 78% of total African coffee imports:

• Beijing leads, mainly importing unroasted beans;

• Shanghai and Jiangsu follow closely, leveraging roasting and distribution advantages;

• Tianjin and Fujian benefit from port and processing capacities;

• Anhui, Chongqing, and Hubei saw significant growth, indicating coffee consumption is spreading inland.

  

03

Long-Term Outlook: African Beans as Strategic Supply, Market to Further Segment

Historical data from 2022–2025 show African coffee’s steadily rising importance in China’s market. After a 15% decline in Ethiopia’s coffee exports to China in 2023, January–August 2025 saw a 225% rebound, returning to pre-2022 levels. Exports from Uganda and Tanzania have grown at an average annual rate of 18% and 15%, respectively, while Rwanda maintained stable supply. Burundi’s debut export in mid-2025, as featured at the China International Import Expo, further diversified China’s sourcing channels.

Currently, Africa accounts for 65% of China’s total coffee imports, solidifying its role as a strategic and stable supply source. As domestic consumers increasingly value origin quality, many are willing to pay a premium for single-origin African beans. Going forward, African exporters are expected to expand beyond raw beans into roasted and decaf coffee, as early data already hint at this shift—China’s imports of roasted coffee from Africa grew 45% year-over-year between January and August 2025, signaling the rise of niche, value-added categories.

From global coffee futures soaring to China’s contrarian buying spree, the “hard currency” status of African beans mirrors both China’s coffee consumption upgrade and the globalization of its supply chain. As China–Africa trade links deepen and consumer preferences diversify, African coffee will continue to inject vitality into the Chinese market—becoming a key partner in the country’s journey toward premiumization and sustainable growth, and painting a vivid picture of collaboration across the global coffee value chain.